Due to “demand slowdown”, Mr. Zhang has reduced the iPhone XR shipment forecast by 3 million units due to “weak bookings”. Zhang believes that Apple will begin to reduce the production of iPhone XS and iPhone XR by 6 million units in November and December, of which 2 million are iPhone XR and iPhone XS parts are 1 million.
The new iPhone production modeled by Mr. Zhang was 90 million to 95 million units, with shipments of 80 million units and 85 million units. Rosenblatt is revising estimates that the new iPhone will be produced at 88 million units, with new models shipping between 76 million and 77 million units, including September and the rest of the calendar year.
The iPhone's data comes from "sales data for various retail channels," while other details don't detail how the data was collected. Zhang pointed out that there was a supply restriction on the release of the iPhone 8 - but failed to notice that the iPhone XR's release distribution was sold within four days.
The average selling price is expected to increase between 8% and 10%, and the new iPad Pro and MacBook models have soared.
Due to the increase in average selling price and the growth of Mac + iPad, Zhang believes that revenue and earnings will be in line with his previous forecast of $61 billion and $2.65 per share, and Apple's holiday quarterly revenue guidance data is in line with or slightly better than $91.2 billion.
Despite this, Zhang said that Apple stock is a "buy" stock. However, his price target is still $200 per share - this figure is the number that the stock exceeded on August 1. Rosenblatt's target price lags behind Apple's actual price over the past four years, along with analysts over time. The price has risen - but it has never been before the inventory.
Rosenblatt's analysis of Apple's supply chain and sales is generally in the pessimistic aspect of the analyst library.
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